Prophet Of Probability

Hong Kong form analyst


Prophet’s post-mortem: Further wins in store for Size three-year-old

Our Hong Kong form 'Prophet' has picked out three to follow - and one to treat with caution following a flattering win - out of last night's Happy Valley meeting.

Happy Valley, Wednesday 21 December

Summary/track condition: Turf “C” Course. Several good quality youngsters were on display, with horses racing on the pace having an advantage. 


CHILL WAY (4YO gelding; Chris So)

5th of 12 (beaten 5.25L); Class 4 – 1200M – (60-40); Win Odds: 37

Previous rating 52 (unchanged) 

This four-year-old by Darci Brahma was having his first start in Race 3, a 1200m Class 4. He was a fraction tardy to begin and squeezed shortly after that but worked home nicely in a slowly run race. His dam Flying Firebird has had seven winners up to 1600m and this lad looks capable of winning soon, and perhaps over a touch further.  

FIVE G PATCH (4YO gelding; Tony Cruz)

2nd of 9 (beaten 1.25L); Class 3 – 2200M – (80-60); Win Odds: 2.4

Previous rating 76; New rating 77

Hugh Bowman had a rough night with four second placings and this one, at the very least, should have won. Bowman got caught behind the slowing Prime Minister. He didn’t want to leave himself exposed four-wide so he waited, but the bird had flown by the 300m mark when he finally got clear, with Natural Storm achieving a winning break and Five G Patch left chasing.

HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE (3YO gelding; John Size)

1st of 12 (won by 2L); Class 4 – 1200M – (60-40); Win Odds: 2.3

Previous rating 52; New rating 61

He was a difficult watch at his previous start when unable to obtain clear running on IJC night, but with Purton in the saddle for the first time, he showed the potential to win more races and a date in Class 3 does not look beyond him.

Treat with caution

TELECOM MISSILE (6YO gelding; Caspar Fownes)

1st of 12 (won by head); Class 5 – 1200M – (40-0); Win Odds: 5

Previous rating 37; New rating 42

Yes, the Caspar Fownes-trained six-year-old got his head down at the right time for the win, but he got all of the favours from the coveted one alley. Didn’t spend an ounce of energy in the run and would’ve been beaten in one more stride. 




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