Prophet Of Probability

Hong Kong form analyst


Prophet’s post-mortem: Chan delivers Sugar hit

Alfred Chan earned the 'Ride of the night' gong with a bold Class 4 steer on Sugar Sugar, while Francis Lui's rejuvenated seven-year-old London Luckystar shone again for his new stable.

Happy Valley, Wednesday January 18

Track condition

Happy Valley played host to the last night racing for January, with the next three  race cards to be held at Sha Tin during the day. 

The rail was in the “C” position with the course width 22.5m. Generally with a “C” position rail horses racing close to the fence might have an advantage, but if anything the opposite was the case on Wednesday night. 


The meeting proved a fraction tricky for punters with only two of eight favourites successful, but value shoppers came to the fore and there were no blowout results, a welcome relief after Sunday at Sha Tin where $143 and $68 chances saluted.


R3 No.10 MANAGEMENT FOLKS (David Hall)

5th of 12 (beaten 3.75L); Class 4 – 2200m – (60-40); Win Odds $5.9

Drawn the outside gate, Management Folks couldn’t muster enough early pace and Purton elected to go back and gain cover. When the moves were made with around 600m to go the horses he was following probably weren’t going to bring him into the race, so Purton went back to last and looked inside.

Unfortunately, that again lead to dead ends and without much galloping room, the horse battled away to the line. A better draw next time should see him closer in the run and competing hard at the business end of the race. 

R4 No.1 SUPER VINCE (Frankie Lor)

6th of 12 (beaten 3.5L); Class 4 – 1200m – (60-40); Win Odds: $31

Super Vince had his first taste of Class 4 quality and judging by last nights’ effort, he is more than capable of a win in this grade. He received a heavy bump at the start and jockey Teetan elected to ease to the rear. He looked to be travelling sweetly turning from home but was unable to find clear running for the majority of the straight. Another who will benefit greatly from a better barrier next time.  

R8 No.6 FLYING DRAGON (Dennis Yip)

6th of 12 (beaten 3.5L); Class 3 – 1000m – (80-60); Win Odds: $16 

Flying Dragon would never have won Race 8, but he was checked off heels in the straight when running on and would’ve finished closer. A return to Class 4 in the near future should coincide with a return to the winner’s list for this two-time winner in that grade.

Treat with caution

R1 No.9 FORTUNE MASTER (Jamie Richards)

Jamie Richards continued on his winning way last night, but this horse might be starting to wear thin. The race was awkwardly run but Fortune Master appeared to receive plenty of opportunity throughout and was left wanting the last 100m.  

R6 No.8 YOUNG LIFE FOREVER (Caspar Fownes)

Fownes had a double last night, keeping himself in the fight for the trainers’ premiership, but Young Life Forever didn’t help the cause. Presented with a perfect trail, and off the back of a slow pace, he looked to have every chance but couldn’t deliver.

Ride of the night

ALFRED CHAN R5 No.1 Sugar Sugar

Sugar Sugar was sweet indeed for Alfie Chan. He jumped cleanly after some barrier education following his last run and Chan quickly got him into the one-out, one-back position, forcing Purton on to go behind and trail on the favourite. From there it was smooth sailing as he registered his third win from 67 rides this season.

Best training performance

FRANCIS LUI R2 No.7 London Luckystar

From 0 wins in 30 starts to 3 from 36. That’s the remarkable turnaround Lui has achieved with this seven-year-old. Not only has he won three-from-six for the new stable, but he has been a little unfortunate on at least another two occasions. Last night he showed a win in Class 4 company may not be beyond him either, with a commanding three-length victory. 


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