Coming into The Hong Kong Classic Mile on Sunday, 1 February there were only two realistic chances on past performances and they were Little Paradise and Sagacious Life. This was quite clear from the ratings that the Tech Team had assigned to the combatants in their respective lead up races. The ratings below are the highest ratings achieved by the four favourites (and the 2nd horse) before the Classic Mile and the Ratings achieved on the day with the number in brackets the time form number:
- Little Paradise 75.5 to 77.5 (TF 120)
- Infinite Resolve 72.5 to 74.5 (114)
- Beauty Bolt 71.5 to 74 (112)
- Invincible Ibis 72 to 70 (104)
The first point to make is that Invincible Ibis was a false favourite as it rated 3.5 kilos below Little Paradise. Interestingly, Invincible Ibis went backwards, however, Little Paradise found a half step.
This raises the question of how far will Little Paradise improve in the future, and to quantify this likelihood the Tech Team have looked at past Champions to analyse their level of improvement from their early career to their best, as we assert that Little Paradise will be equal in ability to the Great Golden Sixty.
We looked at these horses: Ka Ying Rising, Romantic Warrior, Golden Sixty and Beauty Generation, all multiple Group 1 winners. Below are the best rating these horses achieved in their first eight runs relative to their best ever ratings with our timeform translation in brackets as well as their improvement;
- Ka Ying Rising 81.5 to 85.5+ (TF 138) (imp 4.0k)
- Romantic Warrior 79 to 84.5 (TF 136) (imp 5.5)
- Golden Sixty 77.5 to 84 (TF 134) (imp 6.5)
- Beauty Generation 76.5 to 84 (TF 134) (imp 7.5)
Apart from Ka Ying Rising who has to date only found 4.0+ (the plus as he isn’t ridden out), the average improvement is about 6.5 kilos, or 4.5 lengths. If Ka Ying Rising finds the 6.5 kilos, his rating will be 88 (TF141), but we are unsure whether any thoroughbred can break 67.0 secs from a standing start (unlike the Japanese times from a flying start), which he will need to do to attain such a high rating over the sprint distance of 1200 metres.
Back to Little Paradise, his target career high rating is 84 (TF 134), which we believe he will do and, if so, he will track Golden Sixty’s exemplary career.
Of course, Little Paradise will win the second leg of the Triple Crown very easily, and then comes the Derby. We believe that given his breeding on his dam’s side he will definitely run the 2000 metre distance of the Derby as his third and fourth dams are from Melbourne Cup winners (3200m).
